Researchers at the University of Arizona have secured a $4.8 million grant from the National Science Foundation to develop a next-generation air quality modeling system aimed at improving how pollution and wildfire smoke are tracked, forecasted, and communicated across the United States.
The multi-institution project is led by Dr. Ave Arellano Jr., professor of data assimilation and atmospheric chemistry at the University of Arizona, in partnership with the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, the University at Albany, and the University of Iowa. The initiative focuses on replacing aging air quality models with a more flexible, modular, and community-driven framework as air pollution events become more frequent and severe.
For decades, U.S. air quality forecasting has relied on legacy systems such as the EPA’s Community Multiscale Air Quality model and the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry. However, key platforms are being phased out, and newer national weather models currently lack a modern air quality component, creating a growing capability gap.
The new system will adopt a modular design inspired by game development architectures, allowing researchers to plug in or modify components that simulate how pollutants are emitted, transported, and transformed in the atmosphere. This approach is intended to lower technical barriers, enabling students and scientists to focus on scientific questions rather than software complexity.
The project also emphasizes workforce development. Undergraduate computer science and atmospheric science students will contribute directly to building and testing the system, with annual collaborative sessions hosted at NCAR. Researchers say the effort will improve interdisciplinary collaboration while creating a future-ready modeling platform.
The new infrastructure is expected to significantly enhance forecasting of wildfire smoke, particulate pollution, and ozone events, particularly in regions such as the Southwest, supporting public health, agriculture, and climate resilience efforts nationwide.
